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With it being so close to the presidential election I’ve heard quite a few client’s and agents speculate on how interest rates will be impacted. So here is the historical data from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac which dates back to 1971.
1972 – Richard Nixon won in a landslide victory over George McGovern.
Prior to the election the rate was 7.43% and it increased slightly to 7.44% in December.
1976 – Jimmy Carter won over Gerald Ford.
Prior to the election the rate was 8.81% and it decreased to 8.79% in December.
1980 – Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter.
Prior to the election the rate was 14.21% and it increased to 14.79% in December.
1984 – Ronald Reagan ran for a second time and defeated Walter Mondale.
Prior to the election the rate was 13.64% and in December it decreased to 13.18%.
1988 – George H. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis.
Prior to the election the rate was 10.27% and in December it increased to 10.61%.
1992 – Bill Clinton defeated George H. Bush.
Prior to the election the rate was 8.31% and a month later it decreased to 8.21%.
1996 – Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole.
Prior to the election the rate was 7.62% and it decreased to 7.60% in December.
2000 – George W. Bush defeated Al Gore. Prior to the election the rate was 7.75% and it decreased slightly to 7.38% in December.
2004 – George W. Bush defeated John Kerry.
Prior to the election the rate was 5.73% and it increased to 5.75% in December.
2008 – Barack Obama defeated John McCain.
Prior to the election the rate was 6.09% and decreased to 5.09% in December.
2012 – Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney.
Prior to the election the rate was 3.38% and decreased to 3.31% in December.
The fear so many have that rates will increase in a big way after an election is not supported by historical data. It is the state of the economy that determines the overall change in interest rates.
Shout out to Denise Lones, The Lones Group, for sending over this data in her Zebra Blog. Thank you!
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